Dashain stock planning: a shopkeeper's buying plan for 2083

Start from last year, aligned to the festival

Gut feel remembers the busiest day and forgets the slow week after. Last year’s bills do not.

Pull item-level sales for Asoj and Kartik 2082. Then line them up against the days the festivals fell on last year, instead of the month name. Dashain moves between years, so “Asoj last year” and “Asoj this year” can be very different weeks. In 2083 Dashain starts in late Asoj, while Vijaya Dashami and all of Tihar fall in Kartik. Compare the 30 days before Vijaya Dashami last year with the 30 days before 21 October this year.

Three corrections turn history into a forecast:

• Stock-outs. If an item sold out five days early, last year’s figure understates demand.
• Changes since. A new shop nearby, a wider range, a price rise or a road closure all move the number.
• Variants. Plan at SKU level. “Kurta sets” is not a forecast; kurta set, design 4, size 10, is.

Kirana and hardware shops usually get a second peak at Tihar, for oil, sweets, dry fruit, lights and wiring. Clothing sells hardest before Dashain, and mobile and electronics shops often get both peaks. Forecast each festival on its own.

How much stock to buy for Dashain: a worked example

The figures below are illustrative. Replace them with your own.

A clothing store sells one boys’ kurta set design. Last year, in the 25 days before Dashami, it sold 120 units, then ran out five days early.

Compare the festival reorder level of 96 with a normal-season level for the same item. At about 1.3 sales a day, a 7-day lead time and a week’s safety stock, that is roughly 18. If you keep the normal reorder level through Asoj, the alert comes when it is already too late to restock.

Split the 140 into two lots: 90 now (Rs 1,08,000) and 50 called off in the first week after Ghatasthapana (Rs 60,000). If the first week sells slowly, cut the second lot. Agree this with the supplier when you place the first order, so they keep the second lot for you and do not sell it to someone else.

Why supplier lead times stretch before the festival

Every shop in the country is ordering at the same time. Wholesalers run short and transport is booked up. From around Phulpati until after Tika, many suppliers close or work with only a few staff, and some do not fully reopen until after Kojagrat Purnima.

Ask each main supplier three questions in the week of 13 September:

1. What is your lead time for an order placed in late September, and in early October?
2. On which dates are you closed for Dashain, and for Tihar?
3. Will you take back or exchange unsold stock after Tihar, and within how many days?

Write the answers down. The closure dates are the edge of your plan: anything ordered after about 13 October will probably not arrive before Dashami. The gap between Dashain and Tihar is short, so place Tihar orders soon after Kojagrat Purnima.

Cash flow: supplier credit on one side, udhaaro on the other

Festival stock is the largest purchase of the year for most shops, and it lands exactly when customers ask for credit.

Take the example above and say the Rs 1,68,000 is bought on 30 days’ credit from late September. The bill falls due in late October, straight after Dashami. Now say a quarter of festival sales go on udhaaro and those customers pay after Tihar. You pay the supplier about three weeks before that money comes back.

You can close the gap two ways. Ask for 45 days instead of 30, so the due date falls after Tihar. Or collect old dues first, which we cover in collecting udhaaro before Dashain. Check each supplier’s credit limit before you place both lots, because the second lot is usually where the limit gets crossed.

Gift packs and bundles without losing the margin

A gift pack feels like a sale. It is often a discount you did not calculate.

An illustrative kirana pack: 1 litre of ghee (cost Rs 1,100, sells at Rs 1,400) and 500 g of dry fruit (cost Rs 650, sells at Rs 850), plus Rs 100 of box and ribbon.

• Sold separately: Rs 2,250 in sales, Rs 500 profit, a 22.2% margin.
• Packed at a round Rs 2,199: cost Rs 1,850, profit Rs 349, a 15.9% margin.
• Priced to keep a 22% margin: Rs 1,850 ÷ 0.78 = Rs 2,372, so Rs 2,375.

Price the pack from its total cost, packaging included, and then choose the discount on purpose. Do the same for a phone with a cover and screen guard, or a kurta set with a shawl.

Count before and after the festival, as well as at year end

Count your festival items twice: once before the first delivery lands, and once after Bhai Tika.

The first count gives the order maths the real stock on hand. If the screen says 30 and the shelf holds 18, you under-order by 12. The second count shows what really sold, what went missing in the rush and what is left to deal with.

Count fast movers and high-value items first, by SKU and by location. A paper sheet in the stock register format works for the count itself. Correct the system with a dated adjustment that gives a reason. Do not type over the old quantity. For the counter side of the rush, see billing fast and correctly at a festival counter.

What to do with leftover stock after Tihar

Sort what is left into three piles in the week of 15 November.

Return it. If the supplier agreed to take back unsold stock, send it within the window you agreed. A return against a purchase bill is recorded as a debit note, which reduces what you owe.

Move it. A design that stopped selling in the shop may sell at a second location, or it can wait in the godown so the shelf is free. Record the move as a stock transfer so both places show the right quantity.

Mark down or hold. Work it out first. An illustrative example: 60 strings of Tihar lights left, cost Rs 250, normal price Rs 450.

Holding looks better on paper. Now say a quarter of the strings fail or go out of style by next year. Then 45 strings sell at Rs 450, against the Rs 15,000 already spent. After the interest, the held profit drops to about Rs 3,450, which is less than the markdown. Hold stock that is small, does not spoil and will not look dated. Mark down fashion, perishable goods, and anything printed with this year’s festival. When you hold, sell the older lot first next season, following FIFO.

Week-by-week plan, September to November 2026

When a notebook or spreadsheet is enough

If you sell fewer than a hundred items and buy from two or three suppliers, the plan above fits on a few pages. Last year’s purchase bills show what you bought for the season. If you had little left over, that is close enough to what you sold. A spreadsheet can do the order maths.

Software is worth it when the item list is long, when variants such as sizes and colours multiply the count, or when you cannot say what sold last Asoj without adding up bill books.

How Kuver Books helps with festival stock

In Kuver Books every approved invoice reduces stock in the warehouse it was billed from, so the quantity on screen keeps up with the counter through the rush. Each product has its own reorder level, and when stock falls below it an alert shows on the product list and the dashboard. The sales reports include sales by item by month, with date filters in Bikram Sambat. Adjustments need a reason and an approval. Transfers run from requisition to receipt. Unlimited warehouses on every plan, so a shop and a godown can hold stock separately. The inventory feature page covers it in full, and the clothing store and retail pages show how shops set it up.

The Standard plan is NPR 9,999/year, plus 13% VAT; the pricing page has the rest. There is a 14-day free trial, no card required, with guided setup and your workspace ready the same business day. If your records are in a spreadsheet or on paper, read migrating from Excel or moving off a bill book. If you start in September, there is time to load your item list and opening stock before the first festival delivery.